Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show a consolidation phase, despite the easing of geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced tensions in the global energy sector, failed to push bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. In my assessment, the main reason for the stagnation remains the fear of new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Potential Threat from Strategy
The company may need to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. Especially after the repurchase of convertible bonds worth $1.5 billion maturing in 2029. The issuance of new shares and the buildup of debt capacity, which are usually seen as bullish signals, could in this case turn against the market if Strategy decides to liquidate part of its positions. While the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, which is favorable for risk assets, the pressure from corporate sales remains a restraining factor.
Short-Term Holders Remain Calm
Analysis of CryptoQuant data from the COINDREAM team shows that short-term holders (STH) are not yet panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. This is significantly above the "panic threshold" — the 0.95 mark. The current market structure points more to a fragile recovery rather than a mass capitulation. If the indicator returns to 1, it will confirm an improvement in sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Altcoins Under Pressure: Five-Year High in Selling
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more alarming. According to IT Tech researchers, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a brief recovery to the zero level in early 2025, the indicator has sharply reversed downward again and continues to fall. This indicates a continued outflow of liquidity from altcoins and a lack of interest in second-tier risk assets.
My view: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather the market waiting before a major move. The key trigger for an upward breakout will be either the complete removal of the threat of sales by Strategy, or, conversely, the realization of these sales, which could create a local bottom. For now, short-term holders are showing resilience, while altcoins continue to bleed, which is a classic sign of capital flowing into "digital gold."