Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: consolidation analysis, Strategy pressure, and short-term holder calm
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues its sideways phase. Despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which was expected to ease tensions in the energy sector, Bitcoin stubbornly holds below the $66,000 mark. The key factor restraining growth is concerns about potential new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The company, known for its massive BTC accumulation, may be forced to sell part of its portfolio to finance dividend payments. This issue became particularly acute after the redemption of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy itself continues to issue shares and increase its growth potential, but this optimism could backfire on the market if the company decides to lock in profits to meet financial obligations.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally favors risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, this has not yet provided enough momentum to break out of the current range.
Short-term holders: a fragile equilibrium without panic
An analysis of short-term investor behavior shows that the market is in a state of uncertainty, but not panic. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category of participants is fluctuating near the 0.995 mark. This value signals minor losses when coins are spent, far from the "panic threshold" level of 0.95.
The current market structure points to a fragile recovery phase. To confirm a shift in sentiment, the indicator needs to return to the 1 level, which would mean entering a profit zone for short-term traders. Conversely, a break below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, indicating an increased risk of mass capitulation.
Altcoins under pressure: a five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is significantly more tense. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Interestingly, at the beginning of 2025, this indicator almost returned to zero, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp reversal followed, and since then the decline has only intensified. This suggests that capital continues to flow out of altcoins, and investors see no compelling growth drivers amid the overall uncertainty.
My view: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a period of accumulation before the next major move. However, pressure from Strategy and record altcoin sell-offs create a unique dynamic. The market is being cleansed of "weak hands," and once the macroeconomic situation provides a clear signal, Bitcoin will likely break out of this range. The only question is whether altcoins will manage to recover before that happens or if their decline will continue.