France surges to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner are being rewritten
Users of the decentralized prediction market Polymarket have radically revised their preferences regarding the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The French national team unexpectedly took the lead, displacing the Spanish from the top spot, whose chances plummeted after a sensational draw with Cape Verde in the opening round.
Before the tournament began, Spain confidently held the lead in the favorites' ranking. However, a goalless draw with a World Cup debutant instantly changed the landscape. Traders quickly factored this disappointing result into the odds, and France seized the initiative.
New balance of power in the prediction market
According to the latest Polymarket data, the French team's victory in the tournament now accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly gained over the past day and has firmly secured the top position.
Spain has dropped to second place with a probability of 13% and a contract price of around $0.134, losing approximately three percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the group of favorites — also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner betting market has already exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting enormous interest in the tournament.
Why did Spain lose ground?
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. However, the market has only cooled towards Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their standing in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely bunched together, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which gives the debut match special significance. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
Analyst's opinion: The prediction market is sensitive to unexpected results, and the current situation is a vivid example of how one match can reshape the entire hierarchy of favorites. However, Spain should not be written off: the density of odds in the top five suggests that the intrigue remains, and any next round could once again turn the table upside down. Polymarket remains an ideal tool for tracking these dynamic changes in real time.