Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran has eased tensions in the energy sector, but Bitcoin has still failed to consolidate above the $66,000 mark. The main drag on growth is concerns related to potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Strategy: The Threat of New Sell-offs
In my assessment, the key risk for the market now comes from Strategy's actions. The company may need to sell off some of its Bitcoin holdings to finance dividend payments, especially after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Although Strategy continues to increase its share issuance, boosting growth potential, in the long term this optimism could turn against Bitcoin. Nevertheless, macroeconomic stability favors risk assets, partially offsetting the pressure.
Short-term Holders: No Panic
Analysis of CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holders remain calm. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses. The metric is holding firmly above the "panic threshold" of 0.95, signaling a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. A return to the value of 1 would confirm improving sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of rising panic.
Altcoins: Five-Year High in Selling Pressure
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, the altcoin market is experiencing unprecedented pressure. The cumulative difference between spot market buy and sell volumes across all cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC and ETH) has remained in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the start of 2025, the indicator nearly reached zero, but then sharply reversed and continues to decline, hitting a five-year extreme. This points to a structural outflow of liquidity from altcoins, which I consider an extremely alarming sign for the entire market.
My opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation is a temporary phenomenon driven by corporate risks and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the decline in altcoins amid BTC's stability indicates a capital shift toward the first cryptocurrency. Investors should prepare for a potential breakout above the $66,000 level if pressure from Strategy eases and market sentiment improves.