France surges to the lead in 2026 World Cup betting on Polymarket: Spain loses ground after a sensational draw
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp change in the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The French national team now occupies the top spot in the rankings, overtaking the Spanish, who suffered from an unexpected result in the opening round.
Before the tournament began, Spain confidently led the odds. However, a goalless draw with tournament debutants Cape Verde instantly changed the balance of power. Traders quickly priced in the disappointing outcome, and the French team seized the initiative.
As of now, France accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team has slightly improved over the past day and secured the top position. Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. Next are Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104). Portugal rounds out the top five favorites — also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde was one of the biggest sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered extremely unlikely, so the unexpected result dealt a heavy blow to the Spanish odds. However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and still has a chance to improve their position in upcoming matches. The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight: France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely grouped, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and their captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. On the same matchday, England faces Croatia, where the British are favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play Panama, and Uzbekistan will face Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, which adds special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five leaders.
Expert opinion: The change of leader on Polymarket is a classic example of how one unexpected result reshapes the expectations of thousands of traders. However, Spain should not be written off: the density in the top five indicates that the intrigue will persist until the very final, and any next match could return the Spanish to the top.