Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysis of consolidation reasons and market signals
Despite the positive geopolitical backdrop following the agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced risks for global energy, the leading cryptocurrency continues to trade below the $66,000 mark. The main reason is lingering concerns about potential sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my analysis, the key trigger for pressure on BTC is Strategy's need to finance dividend payments. The company recently repurchased $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029, and covering these obligations may require additional bitcoin sales. The paradox is that the aggressive issuance of shares and the buildup of Strategy's growth potential, which are usually perceived as a bullish signal, could in this case turn against the market by increasing the coin supply.
Short-term holders remain calm
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Moreover, data from the COINDREAM team (CryptoQuant) shows that short-term bitcoin holders are not panicking. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor losses but not mass capitulation.
The key level to watch is 0.95. As long as the SOPR holds above this "panic threshold," the market is in a fragile recovery phase, not a complete collapse. A return of the indicator to the 1.0 level would be the first confirmation of improving sentiment. If the SOPR breaks below 0.95, it would be a serious warning of rising fear and potential sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in seller pressure
While bitcoin shows relative stability, the situation in the altcoin market is much more alarming. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded a five-year high in seller pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Interestingly, at the beginning of 2025, this indicator nearly returned to zero, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp downturn followed, and since then, selling pressure has only intensified. This suggests that capital continues to flow out of altcoins, concentrating in more liquid and reliable assets.
My conclusion: The market is in a "wait-and-see" phase. Bitcoin is held back by corporate risks from Strategy but is fundamentally ready for growth. Altcoins, on the other hand, are experiencing a significant liquidity outflow, which could prolong their recovery period. For long-term investors, the priority now is not to try to catch the perfect bottom, but to assess the overall macroeconomic trajectory and prepare for the next bullish cycle.