Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to consolidate below the $66,000 mark, despite the easing of geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which relieved some tension in the global energy sector. The main brake on Bitcoin's growth is the fear of potential new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
According to my data, the company may be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Strategy's strategy of continuously issuing shares and increasing debt, which previously pushed the market up, could now backfire, creating excess BTC supply.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally supports risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, this positive factor has yet to outweigh the pressure from corporate sales.
Short-term holders: a fragile balance
An analysis of short-term investor behavior conducted by the COINDREAM team from CryptoQuant shows that there is no panic in the market yet. The SOPR indicator for this category stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses but not capitulation. The key "panic threshold" is at 0.95, and the current value points to a phase of fragile recovery rather than mass asset dumping.
A return of SOPR to the 1 level would be the first signal of improving sentiment. If the indicator falls below 0.95, it would indicate growing panic and a possible acceleration of the downward move.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin remains relatively stable, the situation in the altcoin market is causing serious concern. According to data from IT Tech researchers, selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between spot buy and sell volumes for all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
This indicator briefly approached zero in early 2025 but then sharply reversed downward and continues to hit new lows. This suggests that investors are actively exiting altcoin positions, moving into more liquid assets or fiat.
My comment: Bitcoin's consolidation is a temporary breather, not a trend reversal. Until Strategy resolves the dividend payment issue, the market will remain under the sword of Damocles of potential sales. However, given macroeconomic stabilization and the absence of panic among short-term holders, I expect that once this pressure is lifted, Bitcoin will resume its upward move. Investors should be prepared for volatility in the coming weeks but not give in to emotions — the fundamental factors remain bullish.