Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: analysts name the main reasons for consolidation
The market of the first cryptocurrency has entered a phase of prolonged consolidation, and there are several significant reasons for this. Despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the recent agreement between the US and Iran, which eased tensions in the energy sector, Bitcoin is stubbornly unable to hold above the $66,000 mark. The key pressure factor is concerns related to the further actions of the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from Strategy: dividends and convertible bonds
My analysis shows that the market is worried about a potential increase in Bitcoin sales by Strategy. The company will likely need to raise liquidity to finance dividend payments, especially after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that Strategy's aggressive share issuance to boost its Bitcoin potential may ultimately work against the market: the more optimism surrounding this process, the higher the risk of a correction at any negative signal.
Short-term holders: calm before the storm?
Meanwhile, data from the COINDREAM team (CryptoQuant) indicates that short-term holders are still keeping their cool. The SOPR indicator for this group of investors is near the 0.995 level, suggesting minimal, almost zero losses. This is not panic, but rather a fragile equilibrium. The key level to watch is 0.95. A drop below this would be the first signal of the start of capitulation, while a return above 1.0 would confirm a shift to bullish sentiment.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling pressure
Against the backdrop of relative stability in Bitcoin, the altcoin market is experiencing a real wave of selling. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded a five-year high in selling pressure. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. A brief breakout to zero at the beginning of 2025 turned out to be false—the indicator sharply reversed and continues to hit new lows. This suggests that investors are massively exiting altcoin positions, shifting into safer assets or simply locking in losses.
My professional opinion: The market is currently in a "risk rotation" phase. Bitcoin is holding up on macroeconomic optimism, but internal corporate risks (particularly from Strategy) create a strong ceiling for growth. Altcoins, meanwhile, are acting as the "canary in the coal mine"—their weakness signals that overall liquidity in the crypto space is declining. Until the issue of Strategy's dividends is resolved or a new powerful catalyst emerges, consolidation could drag on.