Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calm among short-term holders
The bitcoin market continues its consolidation phase, and the key factor restraining growth remains uncertainty surrounding the actions of Strategy. Despite the fact that the agreement between the US and Iran has reduced geopolitical risks and eased concerns about an energy crisis, the leading cryptocurrency cannot break through the $66,000 mark. The reason is potential sales by Strategy, which may be forced to sell off part of its reserves to finance dividend payments.
Particular attention is drawn to the recent buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. This could push the company to sell additional bitcoins, creating further pressure on the market. Paradoxically, Strategy's active stock issuance, which is usually perceived as a bullish signal, could backfire on BTC under current conditions, increasing volatility.
Short-term holders remain calm
Against the backdrop of these macroeconomic and corporate factors, short-term bitcoin holders are demonstrating remarkable resilience. Analysts at CryptoQuant note that the SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor losses. The metric is holding firmly above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95, suggesting a phase of fragile recovery rather than mass capitulation.
The current market structure indicates that investors are in no rush to offload their assets. A return of SOPR to 1 would signal an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would mean a rise in panic and increased downward pressure on the price.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, altcoins are experiencing a veritable wave of selling. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market across all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the start of 2025, the indicator nearly reached zero, but then sharply reversed and has been declining ever since, hitting a five-year low.
My comment: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a period of accumulation ahead of the next move. However, pressure from Strategy and record altcoin selling create a unique situation where the market may be poised for a sharp reversal. Investors should closely monitor the actions of major players and sentiment indicators to avoid missing a trend change.