Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calmness of short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show a consolidation phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. Bitcoin is stubbornly holding below the $66,000 mark, and the key factor restraining growth is concerns related to potential new sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Pressure from the Corporate Giant
Analysts note that Strategy may be forced to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Paradoxically, the aggressive issuance of shares and the buildup of Strategy's own growth potential, which are usually perceived as a bullish signal, could backfire on the market under current conditions. Any large-scale sell-off by this player could trigger a local correction.
Macroeconomic Background and Holder Sentiment
On the other hand, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin is not yet rushing to take advantage of this positive backdrop.
Data on short-term holders (STH) paints an interesting picture. Their SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator stands at 0.995, indicating minor but still losses when coins move. Nevertheless, this figure is still above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95. The current structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. If the SOPR returns to the 1.0 mark, it would confirm a shift in sentiment to the positive side. A drop below 0.95, however, would be an alarming signal, pointing to rising fear and potential sell-offs.
Altcoins Under Pressure
While Bitcoin remains relatively stable, the situation in the altcoin market looks much more tense. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, there was a moment when the indicator almost turned positive, but then a sharp reversal followed, and the downtrend continued. This indicates a structural outflow of liquidity from altcoins, or at least a lack of sustained buying interest in them.
My view: The market is currently at a bifurcation point. On one hand, there is macroeconomic stability and relative calm among short-term Bitcoin holders. On the other, there is the sword of Damocles in the form of potential sales by Strategy and extreme pressure on altcoins. Until Bitcoin shows a confident breakout above the $66,000-$67,000 level, it is premature to talk about the start of a new uptrend. Investors should closely monitor Strategy's actions — this is perhaps the most significant micro-factor for the market at the moment.