France surges to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner rewritten
The Polymarket prediction market has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team unexpectedly topped the rankings, displacing Spain from the first position. The reason is Spain's sensational draw with tournament debutant Cape Verde, which instantly impacted the odds.
How the championship chances changed
Before the opening round, Spain confidently held the top spot. However, a goalless draw with an underdog quickly changed the landscape. Traders immediately priced in the disappointing result, and France seized the lead.
According to Polymarket, France's victory now accounts for 18.4% of all bets. The contract for their championship is trading at $0.185. The team slightly improved over the day and secured the top position.
Spain dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing about 3 percentage points in a day. They are followed by Argentina with 11% ($0.116) and England with 10% ($0.104).
Portugal rounds out the group of favorites—also around 10% with a contract price of $0.103. The total volume of the winner market has exceeded $2.54 billion, reflecting high interest in the tournament.
Why Spain lost ground
Spain's draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Before the match, such an outcome was considered highly unlikely, so the unexpected result hit the Spanish odds hard.
However, the market has only cooled on Spain, not eliminated them from the list of main contenders. The team remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to improve their position in upcoming matches.
The balance of power at the top remains extremely tight. France, Spain, Argentina, England, and Portugal are closely packed, and any result in the group stage could quickly change the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
The focus on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 versus $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17.
On the same match day, England faces Croatia, where the British are the favorites with a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan against Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
For Ronaldo, this tournament is expected to be the last of his career, adding special significance to the debut match. A successful start for Portugal could strengthen their position in the overall title race, where they currently round out the top five.
Analyst comment: The prediction market once again demonstrates high sensitivity to results—one unexpected outcome can rewrite the hierarchy of favorites. However, Spain should not be written off: a draw with an underdog is not a death sentence, but rather a signal for correction. The real battle will unfold in the playoffs, where form and psychology will be decisive.