Bitcoin remains stagnant below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to consolidate near the $66,000 mark, despite positive macroeconomic signals. The key factor restraining growth remains concerns related to potential bitcoin sales by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Analysts at QCP Capital note that the agreement reached between the US and Iran has reduced geopolitical risks for the energy sector, which typically benefits risk assets. However, the market is in no hurry to price in this positive development.
Pressure from Strategy
The main reason is Strategy's potential need to raise liquidity to meet financial obligations. The QCP report emphasizes that the company may have to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to fund dividend payments. This is particularly relevant after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds, which mature in 2029. The paradox of the situation is that Strategy's ongoing share issuance and its growing growth potential could ultimately exert bearish pressure on BTC if the company decides to convert these assets into fiat.
Short-term holders: fragile equilibrium
Against the backdrop of these macro and corporate factors, the behavior of short-term investors appears cautiously optimistic. According to data from CryptoQuant (COINDREAM team), the SOPR indicator for this category of holders stands at 0.995. This indicates minor, nearly zero losses. The key "panic threshold" of 0.95 has not yet been breached, pointing to a phase of fragile recovery rather than full capitulation.
A return of the indicator to the 1.0 level would be the first signal of a shift in sentiment to bullish. Conversely, a drop below 0.95 would mean a sharp rise in fear and likely trigger a new wave of sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure
While bitcoin shows relative stability, altcoins are experiencing a real wave of selling. IT Tech researchers have recorded a five-year high in selling pressure in this market segment. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. After a short-term recovery to zero in early 2025, this indicator has again sharply turned negative and continues to decline.
My analysis: The market is in a "wait-and-see" phase. Bitcoin is holding up due to institutional interest and macro stability, but specific actions by Strategy to manage its balance sheet could become a trigger for a strong move. As long as short-term holders do not panic, BTC has a chance to hold current levels, but for a confident breakout above $66,000, a powerful catalyst is needed — either the completion of Strategy's buyback program or clear positive news from the macroeconomy.