France surges to the lead on Polymarket: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner reshuffled after Spain's surprise
The decentralized prediction market Polymarket has recorded a sharp shift in the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title. The French national team, holding 18.4% of all bets, has overtaken Spain, which lost its lead after an unexpected goalless draw against tournament debutant Cape Verde.
Before the opening round, Spain was confidently leading the contender rankings. However, the match result, which was considered highly unlikely before it began, instantly reshuffled the odds. The contract for France's victory is currently trading at $0.185, reflecting increased trader interest in "Les Bleus." Spain has dropped to second place with a 13% probability and a contract price of around $0.134, losing approximately 3 percentage points in a single day.
Argentina rounds out the top three with 11% ($0.116), while England and Portugal form a tight group at 10% and around 10% respectively ($0.104 and $0.103). The total volume of the market for bets on the tournament winner has already exceeded $2.54 billion, highlighting the immense interest in this event from the crypto community.
Why did Spain lose ground?
The draw with Cape Verde became one of the main sensations of the opening round. Traders, who had expected a confident Spanish victory, quickly priced in the disappointing result. Nevertheless, the market has not written Spain off — it remains in the top group of favorites and retains chances to rectify the situation in upcoming matches. The balance of power at the top is extremely tight: any misstep or impressive victory in the group stage could radically alter the picture.
Matches of the day and Ronaldo's debut
In the spotlight on June 17 is the debut of Portugal and its captain Cristiano Ronaldo at the 2026 World Cup. In the match against DR Congo, Polymarket users give a clear advantage to the Portuguese: their victory is priced at $0.77 compared to $0.08 for the opponent, with a draw at $0.17. For Ronaldo, this tournament will likely be the last of his career, adding special significance to the debut match. A successful start could strengthen Portugal's position in the overall title race, where it currently rounds out the top five leaders.
On the same matchday, England will face Croatia, with the British team favored at a contract price of $0.58. Ghana will play against Panama, and Uzbekistan will take on Colombia, with the Colombians considered clear favorites at odds of $0.72.
My expert take: The Polymarket prediction market once again demonstrates its sensitivity to real sports results. Spain's sharp decline is a classic example of how a single event can rewrite the expectations of thousands of traders. However, it's worth remembering that the group stage is a marathon, not a sprint. Spain has enough potential to recover, and current odds may offer interesting entry opportunities for those who believe in their comeback. Keep an eye on the dynamics — there are still many surprises ahead.