Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holder calm
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show sideways movement, holding below the $66,000 mark. Despite the positive macroeconomic backdrop related to the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, Bitcoin cannot overcome resistance. The main pressure factor is potential sales from the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Risks from the largest corporate holder
According to my analysis, Strategy may be forced to sell off part of its Bitcoin reserves. The company needs to finance dividend payments, especially after redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The paradox is that the aggressive issuance of shares and the buildup of growth potential, which previously supported a bullish sentiment, could now turn against the market. Each new share issuance dilutes the stake of existing shareholders and increases pressure on management to find liquidity.
Short-term holders: fragile equilibrium
Data from the COINDREAM team at CryptoQuant shows that short-term investors are still maintaining their composure. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this group stands at 0.995, indicating minimal realized losses. The key panic threshold is the 0.95 mark. As long as we are above it, the market is in a phase of fragile recovery, not capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1.0 will be the first signal of improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 will indicate growing fear and the likelihood of sell-offs.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year record of sales
Against the backdrop of relative stability in Bitcoin, the altcoin market is experiencing extreme selling pressure. Researchers at IT Tech have recorded that the cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly reached zero, but then sharply reversed downward, hitting a five-year low. This indicates a massive outflow of capital from altcoins and a shift in investor focus toward more liquid assets.
My conclusion: Bitcoin's consolidation is not a sign of weakness, but rather a process of regrouping forces. As long as short-term holders do not panic and institutional players (like Strategy) address their financial tasks, the market is forming a base for the next move. However, the record pressure on altcoins is a worrying signal: capital is leaving risky assets, and if Bitcoin cannot show confident growth in the near future, we may see a synchronized decline across the entire market.