Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and short-term holders' calm
Despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which eased tensions in global energy markets, bitcoin continues to consolidate below the $66,000 mark. The main reason is lingering concerns about potential large-scale sell-offs by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
The Strategy Factor: Dividends Under Threat
The company, which holds the largest corporate portfolio of the leading cryptocurrency, may be forced to sell off some of its assets. The primary catalyst is the need to finance dividend payments, especially after redeeming $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. The equity issuance program and increasing debt burden, which previously fueled optimism, now create a risk of a reverse effect: any pressure on Strategy's liquidity could trigger a sell-off, negatively impacting the market.
Macroeconomic Backdrop: Stability Without Euphoria
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets. However, the market is not yet ready for aggressive growth — investors are waiting for clearer signals.
Short-Term Holders: A Fragile Balance
Analysis of on-chain data from the COINDREAM team (CryptoQuant) shows that short-term holders (STH) remain relatively calm. The SOPR indicator for this category stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The metric holds above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure resembles a phase of fragile recovery rather than full capitulation. A return of SOPR to 1 would signal improving sentiment, while a break below 0.95 would indicate growing panic among short-term speculators.
Altcoins: Seller Pressure at a 5-Year High
A contrast with bitcoin is observed in the altcoin market. According to data from IT Tech (CryptoQuant), seller pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year extreme. The cumulative difference between spot market buy and sell volumes (excluding BTC and ETH) has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed downward and continues to decline, indicating a persistent capital outflow from this segment.
Analyst's View
The situation resembles a classic battle between bulls and bears at key levels. As long as bitcoin holds above $60,000, the market structure remains bullish in the medium term. However, investors should closely monitor Strategy's actions — any confirmation of sales could trigger a correction. I recommend long-term holders avoid trying to catch the bottom and instead focus on fundamental factors such as the halving and institutional demand, which remain the main drivers of the next cycle.