Bitcoin consolidation: seller pressure and macroeconomic stability
Bitcoin continues to hold below the $66,000 mark, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which stabilized the situation in global energy markets. However, the key factor restraining the growth of the leading cryptocurrency remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy.
Pressure from Strategy
Experts note that the company may need to sell part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. This is especially relevant after the repurchase of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Paradoxically, Strategy's active share issuance, aimed at increasing growth potential, could ultimately work against bitcoin, adding pressure to the market.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, creating favorable conditions for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Short-term holders remain calm
An analysis of short-term holder behavior shows that panic has not yet gripped the market. The SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating only minor losses. This metric remains above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current configuration points to a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of the indicator to the 1 level would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would signal an increased risk of panic selling.
Altcoins under pressure
While bitcoin shows relative stability, pressure on altcoins has reached extreme levels. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
At the beginning of 2025, this metric nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed and has been steadily declining ever since, reaching a five-year low.
Analyst's perspective
The market situation remains tense but not critical. Bitcoin's consolidation near current levels is more a sign of waiting than weakness. However, investors should closely monitor Strategy's actions: any major move by this player could trigger significant volatility. Altcoins, in turn, are in a high-risk zone, and their recovery will likely require more time and more convincing signals from the overall market.