Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: Strategy pressure and calmness of short-term holders
The first cryptocurrency market continues to show sideways movement, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks. The agreement between the US and Iran, which was expected to ease tensions in the global energy sector, failed to push Bitcoin above the $66,000 mark. The main factor restraining growth remains concerns related to potential sales by Strategy.
The company, known for its massive BTC accumulation, may be forced to sell part of its reserves to finance dividend payments. This issue is particularly acute after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. By continuing to issue shares and increasing its potential, Strategy risks creating excessive pressure on the market, which could ultimately work against the cryptocurrency itself. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which is traditionally a positive signal for risk assets.
Short-term holders are not panicking
While institutional players are causing concern, retail investors, on the contrary, are showing surprising calm. The SOPR indicator for short-term holders is near the 0.995 mark, indicating minimal losses. This metric is confidently holding above the "panic threshold" of 0.95.
The current market structure resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of the indicator to the level of 1 would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment. However, a drop below 0.95 would signal a sharp rise in fear and a potential sell-off.
Altcoins under pressure: five-year high in selling
While Bitcoin is still maintaining relative stability, the altcoin market is experiencing a real storm. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH, has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months.
Interestingly, at the beginning of 2025, this metric almost returned to zero, offering hope for a trend reversal. However, a sharp reversal followed, and since then the indicator has not stopped falling, indicating a continued capital outflow from the altcoin sector.
My opinion: The market is currently in a phase of liquidity redistribution. While Bitcoin is consolidating, altcoins are being flushed out, which is a classic precursor to the next major move. Investors should focus on fundamental metrics rather than searching for the perfect entry point at the bottom.