Bitcoin stuck below $66,000: pressure from Strategy and calm among short-term holders
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to be in a consolidation phase, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran. The key factor keeping bitcoin below the $66,000 mark remains concerns about potential sales by Strategy.
Analysts at QCP Capital point out that the company may need to sell off part of its bitcoin reserves to finance dividend payments. Particular attention is drawn to the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. According to experts, Strategy's strategy of continuous equity issuance and growth potential buildup could ultimately work against the BTC exchange rate, creating additional pressure on the market.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic backdrop is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally supports risk assets. However, investors remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals from key players.
Calm Among Short-Term Holders
Amid the uncertainty, short-term bitcoin holders are demonstrating remarkable composure. According to data from the COINDREAM team at CryptoQuant, the SOPR indicator for this category of investors stands at 0.995, indicating minor losses but far from the panic threshold of 0.95.
The current market structure more closely resembles a fragile recovery phase rather than a full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1 level would confirm an improvement in short-term sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal, indicating a rise in panic sentiment.
Altcoins Under Pressure
While bitcoin maintains relative stability, altcoins are experiencing tough times. Data from IT Tech researchers indicates that selling pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. The indicator nearly recovered to the zero level in early 2025 but then sharply reversed and has been steadily declining ever since.
Expert comment from Cryptalist: Bitcoin's consolidation is a classic breather before the next significant move. However, the pressure on altcoins is a serious concern. If bitcoin fails to break through the $66,000 level in the near future, we could see a flow of liquidity from altcoins into BTC, which would only worsen the situation in the broader market. Long-term investors should focus on fundamentals rather than searching for the perfect entry point.