Bitcoin has plunged below $64,000: the Fed's "hawkish" signal triggered a sell-off
The digital asset market experienced a sharp decline after the first meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve under new Chairman Kevin Warsh concluded with the retention of hawkish rhetoric. Bitcoin quotes fell below the key level of $64,000, reaching approximately $63,680.
The regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75% per annum. However, the main surprise for investors was a signal about a possible rate hike by the end of the year. The dot plot revealed a split within the FOMC: exactly half of the officials allow for at least one increase, while the other half leans toward maintaining or lowering rates. Warsh himself distanced himself from personal assessment, calling this format "restrictive" for future policy.
The market paid particular attention to the Fed chair's rhetoric. During the press conference, he emphasized "price stability" more than ten times, which investors unequivocally interpreted as a hawkish stance. The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes immediately jumped by 14.4 basis points, and stock indices moved downward.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin lost support, breaking below the psychological level. Ethereum fell by 3.15%, while Solana and XRP lost 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively. The only exception was TRX, which gained 0.75%. The GMCI 30 index, which tracks the largest assets by market capitalization, contracted by 2.6%.
Notably, traditional safe-haven assets also came under pressure: gold fell by 1.39%, silver by 2.79%. However, the stock market partially compensated for losses amid news of the signing of an interim agreement with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which reduced geopolitical risks.
The Fed cited a surge in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East as the main risk to the economy. Warsh emphasized that returning inflation to the target level of 2% is the regulator's "unconditional" commitment. Additionally, he announced the creation of five working groups to study Fed communications, the asset balance, data sources, the impact of AI on the economy, and methods for combating inflation.
My analysis: The cryptocurrency market has become a hostage to macroeconomic uncertainty. The Fed's hawkish pivot is a clear signal that the era of cheap money is definitively over. In the short term, Bitcoin risks testing the $60,000–$62,000 zone if pressure from Treasury yields continues. However, structurally, this does not cancel the long-term bullish trend — the market will simply need more time for consolidation and finding a new equilibrium.