Bitcoin Consolidation: Pressure from Strategy and Calm Among Short-Term Holders
The first cryptocurrency market continues to hold below the $66,000 mark, despite a reduction in geopolitical risks following the agreement between the US and Iran, which has lessened threats to global energy. However, the key factor restraining Bitcoin's growth remains concerns related to potential new sales by Strategy.
Analysis shows that the company may be forced to sell part of its BTC reserves to cover dividend payments, especially after the buyback of $1.5 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2029. Strategy continues to actively issue shares, increasing its potential, but this optimism could ultimately put pressure on the first cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic situation is gradually stabilizing, which traditionally benefits risk assets.
Short-term holders show resilience
According to on-chain analytics, short-term investors remain calm. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator for this category of market participants stands at 0.995, indicating minimal losses. The metric is holding above the critical "panic threshold" of 0.95, suggesting a fragile recovery phase rather than full capitulation. A return of SOPR to the 1.0 level would confirm an improvement in sentiment, while a drop below 0.95 would be an alarming signal of growing panic.
Pressure on altcoins reaches extreme levels
Against the backdrop of relative Bitcoin stability, the situation in the altcoin market looks much more tense. Selling pressure has reached a five-year high. The cumulative difference between buy and sell volumes on the spot market for all cryptocurrencies except BTC and ETH has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. At the beginning of 2025, the indicator nearly returned to zero, but then sharply reversed and has been declining ever since.
My professional opinion: Bitcoin's consolidation in the current range is a temporary phenomenon driven primarily by corporate factors. However, if short-term holders remain calm and the macroeconomic backdrop continues to improve, we could see a resumption of the upward trend. Altcoins, on the other hand, are in a high-risk zone — the current level of selling indicates a deep correction, and without an overall market reversal, recovery here is unlikely.