Grayscale has named the fair price of AAVE: the token is undervalued by 132%.
Grayscale analysts have presented a detailed valuation of the AAVE token, calling it an "undervalued" asset with growth potential more than double its current levels. According to their model, the fair value of AAVE in the base case is $179.11, with the current price around $75. This implies an upside of approximately 132%.
The forecast includes three scenarios over 12 months: base case — $179.11, bear case — $90.91, bull case — $270.57. This asymmetry favoring growth indicates that the market has not yet fully reflected the protocol's fundamental value.
Why AAVE is Undervalued: Five Key Drivers
Grayscale's base case relies on five structural factors that, in my opinion, truly create a sustainable foundation for growth:
- Booming stablecoin market — AAVE is increasingly earning from stablecoins, reducing dependence on volatile crypto assets.
- Major Horizon partnerships — ecosystem expansion attracts institutional capital.
- Return of previously withdrawn deposits — restoring trust after market downturns.
- User influx via Aave App — improved UX and growing active audience.
- Launch of institutional solutions on V4 architecture — a new phase of technological development.
According to Grayscale estimates, the protocol could generate around $60 million in revenue in 2026. The project's fair market capitalization is estimated at $1.2–1.5 billion with a multiple of 20–25x, comparable to fintech companies. This is an important signal: DeFi protocols are beginning to be perceived not as speculative tools, but as mature businesses with predictable cash flows.
DeFi — No Longer Speculation
Analysts emphasize that since 2023, decentralized protocols have generated nearly $25 billion in cumulative fees from real users. DEXs, lending, staking, derivatives — this is a full-fledged industry with recurring revenue. At the same time, price multiples in the DeFi lending segment have significantly decreased, creating attractive entry points.
Recall that in June, Aave developers tightened asset listing standards following the April rsETH incident, which put the project at risk of bad debt. This demonstrates the team's maturity and willingness to manage risks, further strengthening the investment thesis.
My comment: AAVE is one of the few DeFi tokens that combines real fee generation, institutional recognition, and a clear valuation model. At current levels, it indeed appears undervalued, especially against the backdrop of a growing stablecoin market and restored confidence in the sector. However, investors should consider that realizing the bull case will require not only fundamental improvements but also a generally positive market sentiment.