Geopolitical Arbitrage: How the Iran Deal Sparked a Historic Rally on Wall Street
US President Donald Trump directly linked the decision to support a peace agreement with Iran to the record surge in American stock indices. According to him, the strategy turned out to be "genius," and the markets became his main barometer of success. Such an approach is not new to the markets, but in this case, it has taken on particular significance.
Trump made it clear: investors voted with their wallets for every positive signal from the negotiation process. Any hope of a diplomatic breakthrough was immediately reflected in the charts, while the slightest hiccup sent quotes plummeting. Analysts note that the president has been using stock indices as an operational indicator of his foreign policy effectiveness since his first term. Now, against the backdrop of a ceasefire with Tehran, these indicators have become a key argument in favor of ending hostilities.
Record Levels and Market Resilience
The market reaction exceeded expectations. The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high of 7,554.29 points, gaining 1.65%. The Dow Jones surged by 468.77 points, also setting an absolute record just below the 51,671 mark. The technology sector showed even more impressive momentum: the Nasdaq soared by 3.07%.
The key driver was the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices collapsed by nearly 20% from their 2026 peaks, sharply reducing the inflationary pressure that Trump had previously blamed on the prolonged conflict. Notably, according to the president, even at the height of strikes against Iran, markets behaved much more resiliently than he initially expected. Trump anticipated a 25-30% drop in stocks, but instead saw a "stable economy."
Historical Lessons and a Look to the Future
In his speech, Trump drew parallels with the Great Depression, noting that his administration prevented a catastrophic scenario, comparing it to the mistakes of President Hoover, who "raised taxes and rates too quickly at the same time." He considers the current rally in quotes as the main proof that his policy worked.
The White House chief is absolutely confident in maintaining a long-term positive trend. Cheap energy and the resumption of safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, in his opinion, will lead to trillions in profits and continue to fuel the stock market rally.
As for cryptocurrencies, the situation remains on the risk line. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $63,800 after declining more than 2% over the day amid changing expectations for a Fed rate cut. Previously, on news of the ceasefire, the leading cryptocurrency had broken through the $67,000 mark. This clearly demonstrates that digital assets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, although they follow the general risk appetite.
Expert opinion: The market clearly "bought" peace, not just diplomacy. Lower oil prices and the resumption of trade through Hormuz are a direct blow to inflation, which is positive for all risk assets. However, for cryptocurrencies, the key factor now will be not so much geopolitics as the Fed's actions. If rate cuts are delayed, we may see a temporary divergence in dynamics between stock markets and digital assets.