Kalshi's CEO pointed to real competitors: Polymarket is out of the game
The prediction market is undergoing tectonic shifts, and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has clearly outlined the new balance of power. In a recent statement, he made it clear: Polymarket, which many are accustomed to viewing as Kalshi's main rival, is actually not among its top three competitors.
Mansour named three entirely different threats: derivatives giant CME Group, popular broker Robinhood, and major bookmaker operators. This shifts the focus from the familiar rivalry between two "unicorns" to a much more serious battle against traditional financial and gaming institutions.
Why isn't Polymarket the main enemy?
The reason for this stance lies in the data. According to Bank of America analysts, Kalshi holds a massive 91% market share among licensed U.S. prediction platforms. Polymarket is only in second place, with Underdog in third.
However, looking at trading volume over the last 30 days, the gap nearly disappears: about $9.8 billion on Kalshi versus $9.9 billion on Polymarket. Nevertheless, in key metrics such as open interest, Kalshi still dominates, controlling roughly $1 billion of the industry's total $1.6 billion and about 97% of all active markets.
The real threat: CME, Robinhood, and bookmakers
Mansour sees the future in competing with heavyweights. CME Group, together with FanDuel, has already launched the FanDuel Predicts service, where contracts on sports and economic events can be placed. Robinhood, starting with a hub based on Kalshi, is now redirecting some trades to its own platform, launched with Susquehanna. Additionally, DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase are also actively entering the market.
Polymarket, for its part, continues to operate through an offshore platform, which attracts a significant volume of trades from U.S. users using VPNs. This creates regulatory risks for it.
Regulation as a decisive factor
Mansour is convinced: Polymarket needs to be brought under regulation. Recent legal cases in the U.S., including the case of a serviceman who used insider information for bets and a Google engineer who profited from betting, only confirm these concerns. The CFTC has already presented a 267-page draft regulation that permits most sports contracts but introduces a ban on live betting and student competitions.
My expert opinion: The true battle for the prediction market will unfold not between Kalshi and Polymarket, but between regulated financial platforms and offshore operators. Victory in this war will be determined not only by trading volumes but also by the ability to adapt to strict regulatory requirements. Kalshi is clearly betting on legality and cooperation with traditional giants, which in the long term may prove to be a more winning strategy.