Geopolitical Pump: How the Deal with Iran Rewrote Stock Market History
US President Donald Trump linked his decision to support the agreement with Iran to the stock market's volatile reaction. He called this strategy brilliant. Following Sunday's ceasefire agreements, American indices updated their historical highs. This is not just market noise—it is a direct signal of how geopolitics affects capitalization.
According to the American leader, stock quotes rose steadily each time the slightest hope for diplomatic peace emerged. Conversely, any delays in the negotiation process immediately led to a drop in quotes. Thus, the White House chief viewed stock exchange charts as a direct vote by investors for his Middle East policy.
The Market as a Barometer of Politics
Trump spoke about this at the G7 summit in France just hours after the announcement of the agreements with Iran. He called the market's growth proof of the deal's correctness, as well as the reason he chose negotiations instead of new strikes. According to Trump, the market instantly reacted to the slightest signals from the negotiation process.
"The stock market is really smart. Every time we said something positive, like about a willingness to negotiate, quotes went up. Any negative news—and they fell sharply."
Trump has been demonstrating this analytical approach for a long time. He has actively used stock indices as an operational indicator of the success of his decisions since his first presidential term. Now these indicators have become a key argument in favor of ending hostilities.
New Highs and Stock Market Resilience
The dynamics of the indices supported his position. The S&P 500 closed at a record level of 7,554.29—a rise of 1.65%. The Dow index added 468.77 points and also reached a historical high just below 51,671. The technology sector showed even more impressive results. The Nasdaq index soared by 3.07%. Thanks to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fell by almost 20% compared to the peak values of 2026. As a result, inflationary pressure decreased, which Trump had previously openly blamed on the protracted conflict.
Trump also noted that markets, even during strikes on Iran, proved more resilient than he expected. Although stocks and oil were significantly volatile at that time:
"I expected the stock market to drop by 25-30%. But a week earlier, before all the events started, the market was higher than at the beginning—that's an indicator of a stable economy."
During his speech, Trump recalled historical precedents and mentioned a head of state whose mistakes he categorically did not want to repeat.
"He raised taxes and rates too quickly—at the same time. As a result, the Great Depression began."
Historical note: during the stock market crash of 1929, the White House was led by Herbert Hoover. Trump considers the current rise in quotes as the main proof that his administration managed to prevent a similar catastrophic scenario.
What This Means for Cryptocurrencies
The US leader is absolutely confident in the long-term preservation of the positive trend. In his opinion, growth will be facilitated by cheap energy resources and the resumption of safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
"The world will earn trillions of dollars, and the stock market... will continue to grow," the president noted.
Cryptocurrency remains on the same risk line. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $63,800 after a decline of more than 2% over the day—against the backdrop of the Fed changing expectations for rate cuts. Earlier, on news of the truce, the cryptocurrency broke through the $67,000 mark.
My expert conclusion: geopolitical détente is becoming a powerful catalyst for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, investors should remember that the BTC market is still heavily tied to macroeconomic factors, especially Fed policy. The deal with Iran is a positive signal, but not a guarantee of a sustainable rally without monetary policy support.