Kalshi CEO named three main competitors: Polymarket isn't even on the list
The prediction platform market is undergoing a paradigm shift. While many considered decentralized platform Polymarket to be the main rival of legal giant Kalshi, the company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, holds a completely different opinion. In a recent interview, he made it clear: Kalshi's real competition comes not from crypto projects, but from giants in traditional trading and the betting industry.
Who is Kalshi actually afraid of?
Mansour highlighted three key threats:
- CME Group — the global leader in derivatives, which, together with FanDuel, launched the FanDuel Predicts service. This is a direct blow to the market for sports and economic contracts.
- Robinhood — a broker that initially used Kalshi's infrastructure but then began directing flows to its own platform, launched jointly with Susquehanna.
- Bookmaker operators (DraftKings, Novig) and even Coinbase, which are actively entering the prediction market.
Why was Polymarket left out? The answer lies in the numbers. According to Bank of America, Kalshi holds ~91% of the legal prediction market in the US. Polymarket is only second. However, looking at trading volume over the last 30 days, the gap has almost disappeared: $9.8 billion vs. $9.9 billion respectively. But by the key metric — open interest — Kalshi still dominates: $1 billion out of the industry's $1.6 billion and approximately 97% of all active markets.
"When it comes to competition, I honestly think about Polymarket much less than others," Mansour stated. And this makes sense: Polymarket operates through an offshore structure, where US users access it via VPN, remaining in a "gray" zone.
Regulation as the main factor
The head of Kalshi insists on the need to bring Polymarket under regulation. Two recent court cases are only adding fuel to the fire. The first is a criminal case against serviceman Gannon Van Dyke, who turned $33,000 into $400,000 using secret data about a special operation. The second is charges against Google engineer Michele Spagnolo, who earned $1.2 million through insider trading.
These incidents cast a shadow over the entire industry. On June 10, the CFTC presented a 267-page draft regulation, allowing most sports contracts but banning live betting, bets on referee decisions, and student competitions. The discussion will last 45 days.
My analysis
Mansour's position is not just a leader's bravado. He sees a real threat where there is regulatory clarity and huge user bases: at CME and Robinhood. Polymarket, despite its impressive volumes, remains the "Wild West" that will eventually have to be tamed. And when that happens, the balance of power could change dramatically — but not in favor of decentralized platforms, but in favor of those who are already building bridges between predictions and traditional finance.