Diplomatic Pump: How the Deal with Iran Triggered a Rally in the Stock Market
U.S. President Donald Trump directly linked his decision to support the agreement with Iran to the stock market's volatile reaction. He called this strategy brilliant. Recall that after Sunday's ceasefire agreements, American indices hit new all-time highs.
According to the American leader, stock prices rose steadily every time there was the slightest hope for diplomatic peace. Conversely, any delays in the negotiation process immediately led to a drop in prices. Thus, the White House chief viewed stock market charts as a direct vote by investors in favor of his Middle East policy.
How the Market Perceived the Deal with Iran
Trump spoke about this at the G7 summit in France just hours after the announcement of the agreements with Iran. He called the market rally proof of the deal's correctness, as well as the reason he chose negotiations over further strikes.
According to him, the market reacted instantly to the slightest signals from the negotiation process. "The stock market is really smart. Every time we said something positive, like about readiness to negotiate, prices went up. Any negative news — and they fell sharply," the president stated.
Trump has been demonstrating this analytical approach for a long time. He has actively used stock indices as an operational indicator of the success of his decisions since his first presidential term. Now, these indicators have become a key argument in favor of ending hostilities.
New Highs and Stock Market Resilience
The dynamics of the indices supported his position. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,554.29 — a gain of 1.65%. The Dow added 468.77 points and also reached an all-time high just below 51,671.
The technology sector showed even more impressive results. The Nasdaq index surged by 3.07%. Thanks to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices fell nearly 20% compared to their 2026 peaks. As a result, inflationary pressure decreased, which Trump had previously openly blamed on the protracted conflict.
Trump also noted that markets, even during the strikes on Iran, proved more resilient than he expected. Although stocks and oil were noticeably volatile at the time: "I expected the stock market to drop by 25-30%. But a week earlier, before everything started, the market was higher than at the beginning — that's an indicator of a strong economy."
During his speech, Trump recalled historical precedents and mentioned a head of state whose mistakes he categorically wanted to avoid repeating. "He raised taxes and rates too quickly — simultaneously. As a result, the Great Depression began," the president said, referring to Herbert Hoover, who led the White House during the stock market crash of 1929. Trump considers the current rally in prices as the main proof that his administration managed to prevent a similar catastrophic scenario.
What This Means for Cryptocurrencies
The U.S. leader is absolutely confident in the long-term continuation of the positive trend. In his opinion, growth will be fueled by cheap energy and the resumption of safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. "The world will earn trillions of dollars, and the stock market... will continue to grow," the president noted.
Cryptocurrency remains on the same risk line. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $63,800 after declining more than 2% in a day — amid the Fed changing expectations for rate cuts. Previously, on news of the truce, the cryptocurrency had broken through the $67,000 mark.
Cryptalist Commentary: The market once again demonstrates the classic correlation between geopolitical stability and risk appetite. For cryptocurrencies, which are often positioned as "digital gold," the current situation is a litmus test. If the stock market continues its rally amid falling inflation and cheap energy, we could see a delayed but powerful inflow of capital into BTC. However, it's worth remembering that any escalation in the Middle East will immediately hit risk assets. Right now, the key driver is not so much the deal itself, but the long-term macroeconomic consequences in the form of lower energy costs.