Kalshi CEO: Polymarket is not the main competitor; the real threats are CME, Robinhood, and bookmakers.
An interesting situation has developed in the world of event outcome prediction platforms. Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi — a US-licensed operator of such markets — publicly stated that he does not consider Polymarket to be his main competitor. This remark contradicts the widespread belief that the two platforms are in direct competition.
Who is Kalshi actually afraid of?
As an analyst, I have carefully examined Mansour's position. He highlighted three completely different categories of threats. First, the derivatives giant CME Group, which, together with FanDuel, launched the FanDuel Predicts service. Second, the broker Robinhood, which initially used Kalshi's technology but then began creating its own prediction markets. And third, traditional bookmakers such as DraftKings and Novig, which are actively incorporating prediction elements.
Why was Polymarket left out? The answer lies in the numbers. According to Bank of America, Kalshi controls about 91% of all assets in the regulated US prediction market sector. The absolute volume of open interest on Kalshi is approximately $1 billion out of the total $1.6 billion across the entire industry. This is a colossal advantage.
However, looking at trading volume over the last 30 days, the picture changes: Polymarket, with $9.9 billion, even slightly surpasses Kalshi's $9.8 billion. This gap is explained by the high turnover on the decentralized Polymarket platform, where US users actively trade via VPN. Nevertheless, in the key metric — the number of active markets — Kalshi holds nearly 97%.
The regulatory factor and insider scandals
Mansour also emphasized that Polymarket needs to be brought under clear regulation. And there are compelling reasons for this. Recent criminal cases in the US — the first-ever precedent involving serviceman Gannon Van Dyke, who used classified data for betting, and Google engineer Michele Spagnolo, who earned $1.2 million on insider information — cast a shadow over the entire industry. These incidents convincingly prove that the lack of oversight on international platforms creates risks.
The CFTC has already presented a 267-page draft regulation that allows most sports contracts but prohibits live betting and wagering on student competitions. The document's discussion period will last 45 days.
My analysis: The prediction market is entering a phase of maturity. Kalshi, as a regulated "heavyweight," is strategically correct in pointing to the threat from traditional financial giants rather than Polymarket. However, underestimating the decentralized competitor would be a mistake. The outcome of this struggle will be determined not so much by technology as by the speed and quality of implementing regulatory norms. For now, Kalshi remains the king of the hill in the US legal field, but Polymarket and other pursuers are clearly closing in.