The market as a barometer of peace: how Trump's deal with Iran triggered a historic rally
President Donald Trump directly linked his decision to support the agreement with Iran to the volatile reaction of the stock market. According to him, every positive signal from the negotiation process was immediately reflected in stock quotes, while any delay led to a decline. He called this strategy brilliant.
This direct correlation between geopolitics and stock indices is no coincidence. Trump has long used the stock market as an operational indicator of the success of his decisions. Now, this approach has become a key argument in favor of ending hostilities.
Record Highs: S&P 500 and Dow at New Peaks
The market reaction was immediate and impressive. The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high of 7,554.29 points, showing a gain of 1.65%. The Dow added 468.77 points and reached a peak just below 51,671. The technology sector showed even stronger momentum: the Nasdaq surged by 3.07%.
The key driver was a sharp drop in oil prices—nearly 20% from the 2026 highs—due to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This immediately eased inflationary pressures, which Trump had previously blamed on the protracted conflict.
Notably, even during military strikes on Iran, the markets, according to the president, showed resilience above expectations. Although stocks and oil were volatile, the overall trend was positive: "I expected the stock market to drop by 25–30%. But a week earlier, before all the events began, the market was higher than at the start—that's a sign of a resilient economy."
Historical Context: Lessons from the Great Depression
During his speech, Trump drew a parallel with the stock market crash of 1929, when Herbert Hoover was in the White House. In his view, the simultaneous increase in taxes and rates at that time led to disaster. He considers the current rise in stock prices as the main proof that his administration managed to prevent a similar scenario.
What Does This Mean for Cryptocurrencies?
The cryptocurrency market remains on the same risk line. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $63,800 after declining more than 2% in the last 24 hours amid changing expectations for a Fed rate cut. Earlier, on news of the ceasefire, BTC had broken through the $67,000 mark.
Expert Comment from Cryptalist: The direct correlation between geopolitical deals and stock indices is a powerful signal for crypto investors. While traditional markets are pricing in de-escalation and cheap energy, BTC remains a hostage to the Fed's macroeconomic policy. If the trend toward rate cuts resumes, we will see a new wave of growth in digital assets. However, any geopolitical shocks could instantly erase this optimism.