Kalshi's CEO listed three main competitors: Polymarket isn't even in the top.
The predictive platform market in the US is experiencing rapid growth, but it turns out the main battle is not where many are used to thinking. Tarek Mansour, CEO of the licensed platform Kalshi, clearly outlined in a recent interview who he considers real threats to his business. And it is not Polymarket, which is often portrayed as the main rival in the media.
According to Mansour, he is much more concerned about the entry of major players from the trading and betting sectors into the market. His list of main competitors includes: derivatives giant CME Group, popular broker Robinhood, and bookmaker operators. This balance of power radically changes the usual picture of the confrontation between the two "unicorns" — Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why Polymarket is not a priority
At first glance, Mansour's position may seem overconfident, but it is backed by very specific numbers. According to estimates by Bank of America analysts, Kalshi holds about 91% of the market among licensed prediction platforms in the US. Polymarket ranks second, and Underdog third. Such a significant lead allows the head of Kalshi to view competition with Polymarket with indifference.
However, looking at trading volumes over the last 30 days, the picture becomes less clear. According to DeFi Rate, transactions worth about $9.8 billion were conducted on Kalshi, and $9.9 billion on Polymarket. The gap has virtually disappeared. Nevertheless, in key metrics — open interest and number of active markets — Kalshi remains an unattainable leader. The platform holds about $1 billion of the $1.6 billion total open interest in the industry, and approximately 97% of all active markets.
"When it comes to competition, honestly, I think about Polymarket much less than about others," the publication quotes Tarek Mansour as saying.
Real competitors: CME, Robinhood, and bookmakers
Why does Mansour single out these players specifically? CME Group, together with sports betting platform FanDuel, launched the FanDuel Predicts service, where contracts on sports events and economic indicators can be placed. This is a direct blow to Kalshi's product line.
Robinhood represents a double threat. First, the broker opened its own prediction hub based on Kalshi's technology, which could be considered a partnership. However, the company later began redirecting some trades to its own platform, launched jointly with Susquehanna. This is direct competition.
DraftKings, Novig, and Coinbase are also actively entering the prediction market, making it increasingly difficult to name a clear contender for second place. Polymarket, despite its popularity, continues to operate through an offshore platform, which receives a significant volume of trades from US users using VPNs on a regular basis. This makes it vulnerable from a regulatory standpoint.
Regulation shifts the balance of power
Mansour has repeatedly emphasized that Polymarket needs to be brought under regulation. Cases of insider trading on the international platform cast a shadow over the entire industry. Two recent court cases in the US only confirm these concerns. The first criminal precedent involved the case of serviceman Gannon Van Dyke, who, according to the investigation, turned $33,000 into over $400,000 by knowing the exact time of the Maduro special operation in advance. A few weeks later, charges were brought against Google engineer Michele Spagnolo, who earned about $1.2 million from bets.
On June 10, the CFTC presented a 267-page draft regulation. The document allows most sports contracts but introduces a ban on live betting, wagers on referee decisions, and student competitions. The discussion will last 45 days. It is clear that the final outcomes of this confrontation will be determined after the regulator collects and analyzes all feedback from market participants.
Expert opinion: The predictive platform market is entering a phase of maturity where regulatory clarity becomes a key competitive advantage. Kalshi, being a fully licensed platform in the US, is in a more advantageous position than Polymarket, which balances on the edge of the law. However, the emergence of giants like CME and Robinhood, with their colossal user bases and financial resources, poses a much more serious threat to Kalshi's leadership than any current competitor.