Kalshi CEO: Polymarket is not the main competitor; the real threat comes from CME, Robinhood, and bookmakers.
An interesting dynamic has emerged in the world of event prediction platforms, which goes against popular opinion. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has made it clear that he does not consider Polymarket his main rival. Instead, his attention is focused on three completely different categories of players that pose a much more serious threat to his business.
The three pillars of competition according to Kalshi
Mansour named three main competitors: derivatives giant CME Group, popular broker Robinhood, and traditional bookmaker operators. This statement radically changes the usual picture, where the rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket was often portrayed as a battle between two leaders in the same segment.
The reason for this view lies in Kalshi's dominant position in the regulated US market. According to Bank of America analysts, the platform's share is about 91% among licensed American venues. Polymarket ranks second, Underdog third. However, looking at trading volume over the last 30 days, the gap narrows: Kalshi accounted for about $9.8 billion, while Polymarket accounted for $9.9 billion, according to DeFi Rate data.
Nevertheless, on key metrics — open interest and number of active markets — Kalshi remains ahead. It holds about $1 billion of the $1.6 billion total industry open interest and approximately 97% of all active markets.
Why is Polymarket not on the list?
Mansour emphasizes that he thinks about Polymarket "much less than about others." This is explained not only by the lead in the regulated field but also by the fact that Polymarket continues to operate through an offshore platform, where a significant volume of transactions comes from US users using VPNs. In his opinion, it is precisely the cases of insider trading on the international platform that cast a shadow over the entire industry.
Two recent US court cases confirm these concerns. The first criminal precedent was the case of serviceman Gannon Van Dyke, who, according to the investigation, turned an initial $33,000 into over $400,000 by knowing the exact time of the Maduro special operation in advance. A few weeks later, charges were brought against Google engineer Michele Spagnolo, who, according to the prosecution, earned about $1.2 million from bets.
Regulation and the future of the market
On June 10, the CFTC presented a 267-page draft regulation. The document allows most sports contracts but introduces a ban on live betting, wagers on referee decisions, and student competitions. The discussion will last 45 days.
A powerful growth driver for both companies was the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Within a single market for bets on the tournament winner, tens of millions of dollars were turned over daily.
Expert comment: The prediction market is at a crossroads. While Kalshi uses its regulated position as its main trump card, and Polymarket bets on decentralization and a global audience, the real battle will be for the wallet of the mass user, who will soon be able to place bets directly in the Robinhood app or through FanDuel. It is these players, not Polymarket, that pose an existential threat to Kalshi's entire business model.