Kalshi CEO: Polymarket is not the main competitor. The real threats are CME, Robinhood, and bookmakers.
The prediction market is overheated with rumors of a duel between Kalshi and Polymarket, but reality turned out to be far more prosaic. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour clearly stated his position in a recent interview: Polymarket is not among his top three concerns. Moreover, he practically does not view this platform as a direct competitor.
Who does Mansour consider a real threat? The list of three names looks daunting for any startup: derivatives giant CME Group, popular broker Robinhood, and sportsbook operators. This statement radically changes the usual picture of the confrontation between the two "unicorns" of the prediction industry.
Why is Polymarket not an enemy?
The answer lies in the numbers. According to Bank of America analysts, Kalshi holds a massive 91% of the market among licensed US platforms. Polymarket is only in second place, with Underdog rounding out the top three. Yes, in terms of trading volume over the last 30 days, the gap is minimal: about $9.8 billion for Kalshi versus $9.9 billion for Polymarket. But in key metrics — open interest and the number of active markets — Kalshi remains the undisputed leader. Of the $1.6 billion in total industry open interest, Kalshi accounts for about $1 billion and roughly 97% of all active markets.
It is this dominance that allows Mansour to look down on Polymarket. He sees real competition not in decentralized platforms, but in traditional financial and gaming giants that are just beginning to explore this segment.
The three pillars of the threat
First on Mansour's list is CME Group. In December 2025, together with FanDuel, the FanDuel Predicts service was launched, allowing contracts on sports events and economic indicators. This is a direct blow to Kalshi's product line.
Second is Robinhood. The broker first opened its own prediction hub on Kalshi's technology base, but then began redirecting some trades to its own platform, launched together with Susquehanna. This is a classic "partner-competitor" scenario.
Third are bookmakers. DraftKings, Novig, and even Coinbase are actively entering the prediction market. With the emergence of such players, it is becoming increasingly difficult to name a clear contender for second place.
My professional opinion: Mansour's statement is not just the bravado of a leader. It is a clear signal to investors and the market that Kalshi sees its future not in the crypto niche, but in the fight for the mass user against traditional financial institutions. Polymarket, despite its impressive volumes, remains more noise than a real threat for Kalshi. The regulatory battle and competition with CME and Robinhood — that is where the fate of the US prediction market will be decided.