Bitcoin holds above $64,200, but seller pressure remains unabated: what the CVD data says
In recent days, the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate has shown relative stability, holding above the $64,200 mark. However, if you dig deeper, the market picture is far from clear-cut. An analysis of on-chain indicators, particularly the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on Binance, reveals an alarming signal: sellers continue to dominate despite the apparent price increase.
Market Imbalance: CVD Goes Negative
CVD is a key tool for assessing real market pressure. It measures the accumulated difference between market buy and sell volumes. Currently, this indicator on Binance is in deeply negative territory—around -899,000 BTC. This suggests that sell orders systematically outweigh buy orders. In other words, a persistent imbalance in favor of sellers has formed in the market.
Unstable Recovery
The price recovery from levels around $60,000 to current values looks impressive, but it is not supported by an increase in buying activity. CVD data has not improved in sync with the price. This divergence is a classic sign of a "weak" bounce. The rise is occurring not due to aggressive buying, but rather against a backdrop of temporary selling slowdown or passive position holding. Such dynamics call into question the sustainability of the current recovery.
Demand Cushions the Drop, But No More
The total trading volume over the period in question was about 492,000 BTC, with the net volume (delta) amounting to roughly 10,180 BTC. Despite occasional positive spikes, the accumulated value of the indicator relentlessly points to seller dominance. Some participants appear to be using any price increase as an opportunity to lock in profits or reduce losing positions.
On the other hand, Bitcoin's ability to hold above $64,000 indicates the presence of sufficiently strong demand that absorbs a significant portion of this pressure. For now, this demand acts as a shock absorber, preventing the price from collapsing. However, if buying activity begins to wane, we could see a sharp downward shift.
My view: The current situation resembles a "tug of war," where bears are clearly stronger, but bulls are holding the line at a key level. As long as CVD remains deeply negative, any price increase should be viewed with caution. To confirm a trend reversal, we need to see not just price holding, but a confident move of CVD into positive territory, which would indicate a real influx of buying volume.