Seller pressure is mounting: bitcoin holds above $64,200, but the foundation is shaky
While Bitcoin (BTC) shows relative stability, holding above the $64,200 mark, deeper market indicators paint a different, far more alarming picture. Selling pressure is not only failing to ease but appears to be intensifying, casting doubt on the strength of the current recovery.
CVD Metric Signals Seller Dominance
A key on-chain indicator, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on the Binance exchange, continues to remain in deeply negative territory, reaching around -899,000 BTC. This metric, which measures the difference between market buy and sell volumes, unequivocally indicates that sellers have been systematically outweighing buyers over recent trading sessions.
The paradox of the situation lies in the fact that the recent price bounce from levels around $60,000 was not accompanied by an improvement in the CVD indicator. The rise in quotes is occurring against a backdrop of ongoing pressure, which is a classic sign of weakness in an upward move. Essentially, the current uptrend was not supported by aggressive buying demand but is more likely the result of a temporary decrease in selling intensity or activity from "smart money" using panic to accumulate positions.
Demand as the Sole Restraining Factor
A more detailed analysis shows that the total trading volume over the period under review was about 492,000 BTC, with the net delta (the difference between buys and sells) standing at approximately 10,180 BTC. Despite occasional short-term spikes in buying activity, the cumulative CVD value clearly indicates a predominance of sellers.
Bitcoin's current ability to hold above $64,000 can only be explained by the presence of sufficient demand that absorbs part of this pressure. However, this demand appears to be passive in nature—it merely contains the decline but is unable to initiate confident growth. Some market participants seem to be using any local uptick to lock in profits or cut losing positions, creating a "ceiling" for further movement.
My expert opinion: This configuration—a rising price with a negative CVD—is extremely unreliable. It resembles a "sawtooth" or sideways pattern, where large players unload their assets to retail traders who believe in a continued rally. Until we see a sustained reversal of CVD into positive territory, any upward surge should be viewed as a bull trap. The key support remains the $60,000 zone, and a break below it would be an extremely bearish signal.