A whale on Polymarket earned $2.71 million on Colombia's victory over Uzbekistan: deal breakdown
A major player on the prediction market Polymarket, known by the pseudonym endlessFate, recorded an impressive profit of $2.71 million on the outcome of a World Cup football match between the national teams of Colombia and Uzbekistan. Let's break down how this bet was structured and why it turned out to be so successful.
Analysts tracking whale activity on decentralized platforms noticed this position even before the game started. The trader purchased 10,171,908 "Yes" tokens on the market with the question "Will Colombia win on June 17, 2026?". The average entry price was 73.3 cents per token, with a total investment of $7.46 million. At the time the data was published by analysts, the position's value had already risen to $9.31 million, yielding an unrealized profit of 24.76% — approximately $1.85 million.
Match Outcome and Settlement Mechanism
On June 18, Colombia confidently defeated the World Cup debutant — the Uzbekistan national team — with a score of 3:1. Goals were scored by Daniel Muñoz, Luis Díaz, and substitute Jhaminton Campaz, who found the net in the 9th minute of added time. Uzbekistan responded with a goal from Abbosbek Fayzullaev, which became the country's first goal in World Cup history.
On Polymarket, each token of the winning outcome is redeemed at $1. Thus, after Colombia's victory, the 10,171,908 "Yes" tokens brought the whale a payout of $10.17 million. After deducting the initial investment of $7.46 million, the net realized profit amounted to exactly $2.71 million. The position is fully closed, and the assets in the trader's account have been zeroed out — confirming a complete exit from the trade with profit.
Key Trade Metrics
| Metric | Value |
| Number of tokens purchased | 10,171,908 |
| Average token price | 73.3 cents |
| Total investment amount | $7.46 million |
| Payout after victory | $10.17 million |
| Net realized profit | $2.71 million |
Expert comment: This trade clearly demonstrates how experienced players use prediction platforms to achieve high returns on events with low liquidity and a predictable outcome. An entry price of 73 cents with a $1 redemption yields a return of around 36%, significantly exceeding the average metrics of traditional financial markets. However, it is worth remembering that such bets require deep analysis of sporting events and a readiness for total capital loss in case of failure — the risk here is extremely high, but the profit potential is correspondingly substantial.