Seller pressure on bitcoin does not weaken: the price holds above $64,200, but the foundation is shaky
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) holding above the $64,200 mark, selling pressure in the market is not only failing to ease but is also showing alarming dynamics. An analysis of on-chain data, particularly the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator on Binance, paints a very telling picture.
CVD, which measures the accumulated difference between market buy and sell volumes, is in deeply negative territory on Binance—around -899,000 BTC. This is direct evidence that sell orders significantly outweigh buy orders. In other words, sellers are systematically "outweighing" buyers, a classic sign of bearish pressure.
Price Rise Without Genuine Support
Notably, the current price bounce from levels around $60,000 back above $64,000 has not been accompanied by an improvement in the CVD indicator. It has remained in negative territory. This divergence is a classic signal. It indicates that the recent rise was not backed by strong buying activity. Rather, it resembles a "short squeeze" or the result of short-selling activity, rather than organic demand. This seriously questions the sustainability of the current recovery.
The total trading volume over the period in question was about 492,000 BTC, with the net volume (delta) reaching approximately 10,180 BTC. Despite occasional positive flows, the accumulated value of the indicator unequivocally points to seller dominance throughout the entire stretch.
Demand as a Shock Absorber, But Not an Engine
Bitcoin's ability to hold above $64,000, nevertheless, reflects the presence of demand sufficient to absorb some of this pressure. Buyers are acting as a shock absorber, preventing the price from collapsing. However, this demand lacks the strength to reverse the trend and initiate a confident rally.
In my assessment, the current situation is a classic battle of attrition. Sellers are likely using any rise to reduce positions or lock in profits. Buyers, in turn, are merely containing the decline. As long as CVD remains deeply negative, any upward bounce will be vulnerable to sharp reversals. A sustained influx of real buying volume is needed to outweigh the bearish sentiment and shift the mood.
My professional opinion: The market is in a phase of high uncertainty. Until buyers demonstrate the ability not only to hold the line but also to go on the offensive, any rise above $65,000-$66,000 will look like a bull trap. The key signal for a reversal is CVD moving into positive territory.