Seller pressure on bitcoin does not ease: the price holds above $64,200, but the foundation is shaky
The Bitcoin (BTC) market continues to exhibit a classic pattern of struggle between bulls and bears. Despite the price holding above the $64,200 mark, deep on-chain indicators point to persistent and even intensifying selling pressure. This creates an extremely ambiguous picture for the short-term outlook.
A key warning signal is the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator on the Binance exchange. This indicator, which measures the difference between market buy and sell volumes, is in deeply negative territory, at around -899,000 BTC. Such a significant negative value clearly indicates that sellers hold the initiative in the spot market, with aggressive sell orders systematically outweighing buy orders.
Analysis of the dynamics reveals a troubling dissonance: the Bitcoin price bounced from the $60,000 zone and returned above $64,000, yet this rise was not accompanied by an improvement in the CVD indicator. In other words, the price recovery was not backed by real buying activity. It appears that the rise is occurring against a backdrop of declining liquidity or short covering, rather than a confident inflow of capital from the "bulls."
Demand Contains the Decline, But Nothing More
A detailed analysis of trading volumes over the period under review shows that the total trading volume was approximately 492,000 BTC, with the net delta (the difference between buys and sells) standing at only about 10,180 BTC in favor of sellers. Despite occasional spikes in buying activity, the cumulative CVD value remains steadily negative, indicating a structural advantage for sellers.
In my assessment, the current situation is a typical bear market within an uptrend. Some participants are using any local rise to lock in profits or cut losing positions. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $64,000 despite this pressure demonstrates the presence of sufficiently strong demand that absorbs supply. However, this demand is rather passive — it merely contains the decline but is unable to initiate a confident rise.
Expert Opinion: Until the CVD indicator turns positive, any rise in the Bitcoin price should be viewed as a potential bull trap. Sustained movement above $65,000 and a subsequent assault on all-time highs are only possible if an aggressive buyer emerges capable of reversing the current imbalance. I recommend exercising extreme caution when opening long positions at current levels.