Bitcoin is stuck in a bearish zone: on-chain data points to a fragile equilibrium
The current dynamics of bitcoin continue to raise questions among market participants. My calculations show that the quotes of the first cryptocurrency remain 15% below the true average market price, which stands at $77,200. On-chain metrics confirm the persistence of a bearish trend, despite recent recovery attempts.
Short-term holders under pressure
The key sentiment indicator — the MVRV ratio for short-term holders — has risen from 0.81 to 0.9, but has failed to break through the critical level of 1. This means that this group of investors has still not reached breakeven. The average purchase price of their coins is $72,600, so even the recent rise to $65,000 has not covered their losses. Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the past 90 days, reaching $1.07 trillion, indicating a net outflow of capital from the network.
Macroeconomic backdrop and liquidity
The price decline in May-June was associated with the so-called "war premium." After news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, tensions eased: WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold lost its safe-haven premium. During this period, bitcoin stabilized in the $65,000–66,000 range. However, the spot liquidity situation has improved: on Binance, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeded the number of sell orders, and passive buyers are actively absorbing supply around $60,000.
Options market: signs of normalization
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has declined, and implied volatility has normalized, falling from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. The main risk zone — negative gamma — is concentrated at the $68,000 level. It is here that dealers will have to actively hedge positions in the event of a price increase.
My analysis: The market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery will depend on liquidity inflows and buyers' ability to hold current levels. To transition to a bullish phase, a consolidation above $77,200 and sustained growth in realized capitalization are necessary. For now, we are observing a classic consolidation in the bearish zone.