A whale earned $2.71 million on a Polymarket bet: how a trader predicted Colombia's victory over Uzbekistan
A major player on the Polymarket prediction platform, known by the nickname endlessFate, recorded an impressive profit of $2.71 million. The success came from a bet on the Colombian national team's victory in a World Cup match against Uzbekistan. This trade is a striking example of how sound analysis and a willingness to take large risks can yield multi-million dollar dividends in the world of crypto betting.
Strategy and Volume: A $7.46 Million Bet
The trader purchased a "Yes" position on the market with the question "Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?". The total investment amounted to $7.46 million. These funds were used to buy 10,171,908 shares at an average price of 73.3 cents each. Already at the time of the trade's analysis by analysts, the position's value had grown to $9.31 million, yielding an unrealized profit of $1.85 million (24.76%).
Match Outcome and Profit Realization
On June 18, the Colombian national team confidently defeated the World Cup debutant, the Uzbekistan team, with a score of 3-1. Goals were scored by Daniel Muñoz, Luis Díaz, and substitute Jhaminton Campaz, who found the net in the 9th minute of added time. Uzbekistan responded with a goal from Abbosbek Fayzullaev, which became the first in the country's history at a World Cup.
On Polymarket, each share of the winning outcome is redeemed for $1. Since the whale held 10,171,908 "Yes" shares, the payout was approximately $10.17 million. From this amount, $7.46 million represents the return of the initial investment, while the remaining $2.71 million is the net realized profit. It was the low entry price (73.3 cents) combined with the $1 redemption that ensured such a high return.
Trade Details
| Metric | Value |
| Number of Shares Purchased | 10,171,908 |
| Average Price Per Share | 73.3 cents |
| Total Investment Amount | $7.46 million |
| Total Payout After Win | $10.17 million |
| Net Realized Profit | $2.71 million |
After the market settlement, the trader's position was executed, and the value of their active assets was zeroed out, confirming the trade closed with a profit. The profile of endlessFate clearly demonstrates how a strategic entry and confidence in a prediction can be converted into real numbers.
My Expert Opinion: This case is not just luck, but the result of deep analysis and an understanding of market expectations. Buying at 73.3 cents when the market-assessed probability of a Colombian victory was 73% suggests the trader either possessed insider information or simply saw the favorite as undervalued. In any case, for retail investors, this is a reminder: on Polymarket, success comes not from spontaneous bets, but from carefully studying the odds and sporting realities.