Bitcoin is stuck in a bearish zone: on-chain data indicates a lack of bullish momentum
The first cryptocurrency continues to trade 15% below its true average market price, which currently stands at $77,200. A deep analysis of on-chain metrics leaves no doubt: the bearish trend persists, and the market is not yet ready for a reversal.
Short-term holders underwater
The MVRV ratio for short-term holders, although it has risen from 0.81 to 0.9, still remains below the critical threshold of 1. This means that, on average, coins in this group were purchased at $72,600, and the recent rise to $65,000 has not been able to offset their losses. Until these participants break even, it is premature to talk about a shift in sentiment.
Capital is flowing out of the network
Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the past 90 days, dropping to $1.07 trillion. This is direct confirmation of a net capital outflow from the network. To transition to a bullish phase, this indicator needs to return to growth, and the price must consolidate above the $77,200 level. Until this happens, the market remains in a risk zone.
Macroeconomic backdrop and liquidity
The price decline in May-June was largely driven by a "war premium." Following news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, geopolitical tensions eased, leading to a drop in WTI oil prices from $86 to $76 and gold prices. During this period, Bitcoin stabilized in a narrow range of $65,000-66,000.
Interestingly, the situation with spot liquidity has begun to improve. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders has significantly exceeded the number of sell orders. Passive buyers are actively absorbing supply around $60,000, forming local support.
Options market: volatility declines, but risks remain
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has decreased. Expected volatility has normalized, falling from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. However, the main risk zone — negative gamma — is concentrated at the $68,000 level. It is here that dealers will have to actively hedge positions in the event of a price increase, which could trigger a sharp move.
My conclusion: The market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery will depend entirely on an influx of fresh liquidity and the ability of buyers to hold current levels. As long as the price is below $77,200, any rally should be viewed as a correction within the bearish trend, not the start of a new bullish cycle.