Bitcoin stuck in the "bear zone": on-chain data points to a fragile equilibrium
The market of the first cryptocurrency continues to show signs of a bearish trend. Current Bitcoin quotes remain approximately 15% below the true average market price, which, based on my calculations using on-chain data, is around $77,200. This is a key level, and a return to it will be the first signal of a sentiment shift.
The position of short-term holders looks particularly alarming. Their MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has risen from 0.81 to 0.9, but is still below the critical threshold of 1. This means that, on average, this group of investors bought coins at $72,600, and even the recent rise to $65,000 did not allow them to break even. Until this indicator crosses 1, selling pressure will persist.
The dynamics of realized capitalization also confirm capital outflows. Over the past 90 days, it has decreased by 1.45% to $1.07 trillion. To reverse the trend, we need to see not only stabilization of this indicator but also its confident growth, and the price must consolidate above the $77,200 level.
Macroeconomic Background and Liquidity
I attribute the price decline in May-June to the so-called "war premium" embedded in assets. After news of a potential peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, tensions eased: WTI oil fell from $86 to $76, gold lost its safe-haven premium, and Bitcoin stabilized in a narrow range of $65,000–$66,000.
However, positive shifts are observed in the spot market. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeds the number of sell orders. Passive buyers have begun actively absorbing supply around $60,000, forming local support.
The options market is also sending encouraging signals. Demand for put options (insurance against a decline) has decreased, and implied volatility has normalized—from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. The main risk zone (negative gamma) is concentrated at the $68,000 level. It is here that dealers will have to actively hedge positions in the event of a sharp price increase, which could amplify the move.
My conclusion: the market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery will entirely depend on the inflow of fresh liquidity and buyers' ability to hold current levels. Until we see a confident breakout above $68,000–$70,000, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal.