Sellers don't give up: bitcoin holds above $64,200, but the foundation is shaky
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show relative resilience, holding above the $64,200 mark. However, behind this apparent stability lies a worrying signal: selling pressure on the market is not only not easing, but is intensifying. The key indicator I constantly monitor — the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on Binance — is in deeply negative territory, at around -899,000 BTC. This is direct evidence that sales volumes systematically exceed purchase volumes.
Growth anomaly: price goes up, buyers go down
CVD is the cumulative difference between market buy and sell volumes. A negative value indicates seller dominance. Analysis of recent trading sessions reveals a paradoxical picture: Bitcoin has recovered from levels around $60,000 and returned above $64,000, but this rise was not accompanied by an improvement in the CVD indicator. It remained in the "red" zone.
Such a divergence is a classic "bearish" signal. It suggests that the recent bounce was not backed by real buying activity. Essentially, we are observing price growth amid ongoing selling pressure, which casts doubt on the sustainability of this recovery. It appears that some market participants are using any price increase to reduce their positions or lock in profits.
Demand as the only barrier
Despite aggressive selling, Bitcoin is holding up for now. This indicates the presence of counter-demand that absorbs some of this pressure and limits the direct impact on price. The total trading volume over the period under review was about 492,000 BTC, and the net volume (delta) was approximately 10,180 BTC. These figures confirm that, although individual positive flows do occur, the overall vector remains selling.
My expert opinion: The current situation is a classic struggle between "bears," who are actively taking profits, and "bulls," trying to hold the key level. As long as CVD remains deeply negative, any price increase should be viewed as a potential trap. To confirm a trend reversal, we need to see not just price holding, but a sustained improvement in the CVD indicator, i.e., a return of buying initiative. Without this fundamental shift, the current equilibrium is extremely fragile.