Bitcoin is stuck in a bearish zone: on-chain metrics signal a fragile equilibrium
The first cryptocurrency continues to trade 15% below its true average market price, which currently stands at $77,200. On-chain data analysis shows that the bearish trend persists, despite the recent stabilization of quotes.
Short-term holders cannot yet boast of profits. The MVRV ratio for this group has risen from 0.81 to 0.9 but has not yet crossed the critical threshold of 1. The average purchase price of coins for this cohort is $72,600, so the recent rise to $65,000 only partially compensates for losses. It is still far from a full return to profitability.
Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the last 90 days, amounting to $1.07 trillion. This is direct evidence of a net capital outflow from the network. For the market to turn into a bullish phase, this indicator must begin to rise, and the price must consolidate above the $77,200 mark.
Macroeconomic Background and Liquidity
The price decline in May-June was linked by many experts to the so-called "war premium." After news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, market tensions eased. WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold also lost its safe-haven premium. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin stabilized in the $65,000–66,000 range.
The situation with spot liquidity has noticeably improved. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeded the number of sell orders. Passive buyers have begun actively absorbing supply around the $60,000 level, creating local support.
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has declined. Expected volatility has normalized, dropping from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. However, the main risk zone is concentrated at the $68,000 level — it is here that dealers will have to actively hedge positions in the event of a price increase, which could amplify the movement.
My conclusion: The market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery now depends entirely on an influx of fresh liquidity and the ability of buyers to hold current levels. If Bitcoin cannot consolidate above $68,000 in the coming weeks, we risk seeing a retest of the $60,000–62,000 zone.