Bitcoin is stuck in a bearish zone: on-chain metrics indicate a fragile equilibrium
The current Bitcoin price, hovering near $65,000, remains 15% below the true average market value, which, based on my calculations using on-chain data, stands at $77,200. This is a key level that the market has yet to overcome. Analysis of on-chain metrics confirms the persistence of a bearish bias: short-term holders (STH) are still at a loss, and realized capitalization continues to decline.
The MVRV ratio for short-term holders, although it has risen from 0.81 to 0.9, has still not reached the critical threshold of 1. This means the average purchase price of coins for this group is $72,600, and even the recent bounce to $65,000 has not been able to cover their losses. We see that the market is far from the "break-even" phase for speculators, which is an important signal of weakness.
Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the last 90 days, reaching $1.07 trillion. This is direct confirmation of a net capital outflow from the network. Two conditions are necessary for a trend reversal to bullish: a resumption of growth in realized capitalization and a price consolidation above the $77,200 mark. So far, neither condition is being met.
Macroeconomic Background and Market Dynamics
The price decline in May-June was largely driven by a "war premium" — geopolitical tensions that weighed on risk assets. Following news of a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, this premium disappeared: WTI oil fell from $86 to $76, gold lost its safe-haven premium, and Bitcoin stabilized in a narrow range of $65,000–$66,000.
However, the situation with spot liquidity is gradually improving. On Binance, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeds the number of sell orders. Passive buyers are actively absorbing supply around $60,000, forming local support. This is an important, but still insufficient, signal for a reversal.
In the options market, there is a decline in demand for downside protection (put options). Expected volatility has normalized: on weekly contracts, it has dropped from 65% to 35%. The main risk zone is concentrated at the $68,000 level, where dealers will have to actively hedge positions if the price rises due to negative gamma.
My conclusion: the market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery will depend entirely on an influx of fresh liquidity and buyers' ability to hold current levels. We are still in a bearish zone, and any move above $77,200 without a fundamental catalyst will look like a bull trap.