Bitcoin stuck in a "bearish shadow": on-chain data points to a fragile equilibrium
The Bitcoin market continues to experience pressure. Current quotes of the first cryptocurrency are approximately 15% below the true average market price, which is estimated at $77,200. Analysis of on-chain metrics confirms: despite local recovery attempts, we are still in a bearish trend zone.
The condition of short-term holders (STH) is particularly indicative. Their MVRV ratio, reflecting the ratio of market value to realized value, although it has risen from 0.81 to 0.9, is still far from the critical mark of 1. This means that most coins purchased by this group at an average price of $72,600 remain at a loss. The recent jump to $65,000 was unable to compensate for the losses, and STHs have not yet broken even.
Capital is flowing out, the bullish scenario is postponed
A key indicator — Bitcoin's realized capitalization — has decreased by 1.45% over the last 90 days, amounting to $1.07 trillion. This is direct evidence of a net capital outflow from the network. To change sentiment and transition to a bullish phase, a sustained increase in this indicator is necessary, and the price must consolidate above the $77,200 mark. Until this happens, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal.
Macroeconomic backdrop and the "war premium"
I attribute the May and June price decline to the effect of the so-called "war premium." Following news of a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, geopolitical tensions have noticeably decreased. This has impacted traditional markets: WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold lost part of its safe-haven premium. During this period, Bitcoin stabilized in a narrow range of $65,000–$66,000, indicating a temporary equilibrium.
Liquidity and options: signs of stabilization
However, there are also positive signals. The situation with spot liquidity on key exchanges, particularly Binance, has improved. The volume of buy orders significantly exceeds the number of sell orders. Passive buyers are actively absorbing supply around $60,000, forming strong support.
Normalization is also observed in the options market. Demand for protective put options has decreased, and expected volatility has fallen from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. Nevertheless, the main risk zone is concentrated at the $68,000 level — negative gamma is concentrated here, and if the price rises to this level, dealers will have to actively hedge their positions, which could trigger a sharp movement.
My conclusion: The market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery now depends entirely on the inflow of fresh liquidity and the ability of buyers to hold current support levels. If the macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable, we could see consolidation followed by an upward breakout, but a confident exit from the bearish zone will require time and a significant amount of capital.