A crypto whale earned $2.71 million on a bet through Polymarket: analysis of the deal on the Colombia vs. Uzbekistan match
Prediction markets continue to showcase impressive earning cases. This time, the analytical community's attention was drawn to a trade by a pseudonymous trader, endlessFate, on the Polymarket platform. The major player managed to secure a net profit of $2.71 million by betting on the victory of the Colombian national team over Uzbekistan in the FIFA World Cup.
Details of the Major Bet
The investor purchased a "Yes" position on the market asking: "Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?". The total investment amounted to $7.46 million. The trader bought 10,171,908 shares at an average price of 73.3 cents each. At the time of data publication by Lookonchain analysts, the position's value had risen to $9.31 million, with unrealized profit reaching $1.85 million (24.76%).
On June 18, Colombia indeed secured a convincing victory over the World Cup debutant — the Uzbekistan national team — with a score of 3:1. Goals were scored by Daniel Muñoz, Luis Díaz, and substitute Hamington Campaz, who found the net in the 9th minute of added time. Uzbekistan's sole goal was scored by Abbosbek Fayzullaev — the country's first goal in World Cup history.
Earning Mechanics
On Polymarket, each share of the winning outcome is redeemed at $1. After Colombia's victory, the 10,171,908 shares yielded the trader a payout of $10.17 million. Of this amount, $7.46 million covers the initial investment, with the remaining $2.71 million being net profit.
The key success factor was entering at a price of 73.3 cents. The lower the purchase price relative to the $1 face value, the higher the return. In this case, the trade's profitability was 36.3% of the invested capital, which is an outstanding result for prediction markets, especially given the volume.
| Trade Metric | Value |
| Number of Shares Purchased | 10,171,908 |
| Average Price Per Share | 73.3 cents |
| Total Investment Amount | $7.46 million |
| Total Payout After Victory | $10.17 million |
| Net Realized Profit | $2.71 million |
After the market settlement, the trader's position was executed, and the value of active positions in their profile reset to zero — a standard sign of a profitable trade closure.
My comment: This case clearly demonstrates that prediction markets are becoming a full-fledged tool for large capital. Polymarket has long moved beyond niche entertainment — serious liquid pools are forming here, where whales can operate with millions. However, it's worth remembering that such bets require not only luck but also deep analysis of sports events. In this case, the trader clearly possessed insider information or an exceptional understanding of the teams' form, which allowed them to enter at such an attractive price. Ordinary users should not blindly copy such strategies without their own fundamental analysis.