Bitcoin stuck in the "bear zone": on-chain data points to a fragile equilibrium
The first cryptocurrency continues to trade 15% below its true average market price, which, based on my on-chain analysis, stands at $77,200. Key blockchain metrics unequivocally indicate that the bearish trend remains strong, despite recent stabilization.
Short-term holders under pressure
The MVRV ratio for short-term holders (STH) has recovered slightly — from 0.81 to 0.9. However, it is still below the critical threshold of 1.0. This means that this group of investors, on average, purchased coins at $72,600, and even the rise to $65,000 has not allowed them to break even. In fact, every second short-term trader is currently sitting at a loss.
Capital is leaving the network
Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the past 90 days, dropping to $1.07 trillion. For me, this is a clear signal of a net capital outflow from the network. To reverse the trend, we need to see sustained growth in this metric, and the price needs to consolidate above the $77,200 level. Until this happens, any rally should be viewed as a correction within the downward movement.
Macroeconomic backdrop is softening
I attribute the price decline in May-June to the so-called "war premium." Following news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, geopolitical tensions have eased. WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold lost its safe-haven premium. Bitcoin, in response, stabilized in a narrow range of $65,000–$66,000.
Liquidity and options: first signs of life
The spot liquidity situation has begun to improve. On Binance, the volume of buy orders has significantly exceeded the number of sell orders. Passive buyers are actively absorbing supply in the $60,000 area, forming a local bottom.
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has noticeably decreased. Implied volatility has normalized, falling from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. Meanwhile, the main risk zone is concentrated at the $68,000 level — this is where dealers will have to actively hedge positions in the event of a sharp price increase.
My conclusion: The market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery will depend entirely on the inflow of fresh liquidity and buyers' ability to hold current levels. If the price fails to break above the $68,000 mark in the coming days, we risk seeing a retest of the $60,000 zone and below.