A crypto whale earned $2.71 million on a bet through Polymarket: analysis of the deal on the Colombia vs. Uzbekistan match
A major player in the crypto betting market, known under the pseudonym endlessFate, recorded a net profit of $2.71 million on the Polymarket platform. The subject of his investment was a World Cup football match in which the Colombian national team defeated Uzbekistan with a score of 3:1.
Deal Details: From Entry to Profit Taking
The trader purchased a "Yes" position on the market with the question: "Will Colombia win 2026-06-17?". The total investment volume amounted to $7.46 million. The average purchase price per contract was 73.3 cents. A total of 10,171,908 tokens were acquired.
At the time of the publication of the Lookonchain analytical report, the position's value had already risen to $9.31 million, yielding an unrealized profit of $1.85 million (24.76%). However, after the match ended and the market was settled, with each "Yes" contract redeemed at $1, the total payout amounted to $10.17 million. Thus, the net profit exceeding the initial investment reached $2.71 million.
The key success factor was the low average entry price (73.3 cents) against a guaranteed payout of $1 per contract. The lower the purchase price, the higher the margin upon execution.
Match Progress and Key Moments
The Colombian national team confidently defeated the World Cup debutant. Goals were scored by Daniel Muñoz, Luis Díaz, and substitute Jáminton Campaz, who scored in the 9th minute of added time. Uzbekistan's only goal was scored by Abbosbek Fayzullaev — this is the country's first-ever goal in the World Cup.
After the market settlement, the trader's position was fully closed, and the asset profile was zeroed out, confirming successful profit taking.
Comment from Cryptalist analyst: This case is a vivid example of how prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming a full-fledged tool for professional traders. The ability to buy contracts at a discount to face value and lock in profits upon the occurrence of an event is a classic arbitrage model, but within a decentralized platform. However, it is worth remembering that such trades require deep probability analysis and a readiness for total capital loss in the event of an incorrect forecast.