Bitcoin is stuck in a bearish zone: on-chain metrics indicate a fragile equilibrium
The market for the first cryptocurrency continues to show signs of bearish pressure. Current Bitcoin quotes remain 15% below the true average market price, which is estimated at $77,200. This gap between the actual price and fair value is an alarming signal, indicating that the market has not yet found a bottom.
Short-term holders in the loss zone
The key MVRV indicator for short-term holders (STH) rose from 0.81 to 0.9 but failed to surpass the critical level of 1. This means the average purchase price of coins for this group is $72,600, and the recent bounce to $65,000 did not allow them to break even. Until this indicator returns above 1, it is premature to talk about a trend change.
Capital exits, liquidity returns
Bitcoin's realized capitalization has decreased by 1.45% over the past 90 days, dropping to $1.07 trillion. This confirms a net capital outflow from the network — investors continue to lock in losses or withdraw funds. For a transition to a bullish phase, this indicator needs to start growing, and the price must consolidate above the $77,200 level.
Macroeconomic backdrop softens
The price decline in May-June was partly linked to geopolitical tensions. Following news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, the "war premium" in assets disappeared: WTI crude fell from $86 to $76, gold lost its safe-haven premium, and Bitcoin stabilized in the $65,000–$66,000 range.
In the spot market, there is an improvement in the liquidity situation. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeds the number of sell orders, indicating active absorption of supply by passive buyers around the $60,000 level. This is an important signal: if demand persists, seller pressure may weaken.
Options: volatility declines, risks remain
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) has noticeably decreased. Expected volatility has normalized: on weekly contracts, it fell from 65% to 35%. However, the main risk zone is concentrated at the $68,000 level — here, negative gamma is concentrated, which could trigger active hedging by dealers in the event of a price increase.
My analysis: The market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery will depend on liquidity inflows and buyers' ability to hold current levels. Until the price consolidates above $77,200, any rally will be corrective in nature.