A crypto whale earned $2.71 million from a Polymarket bet: analysis of the trade on the Colombia vs. Uzbekistan match
A major player in the crypto market, known by the pseudonym endlessFate, recorded an impressive profit of $2.71 million on the Polymarket prediction platform. His bet was placed on the victory of the Colombian national team over Uzbekistan in the FIFA World Cup. This case is a vivid example of how analysis and precise calculation can turn a sporting event into a high-yield investment.
Trade Mechanics: From Entry to Profit
The trader purchased a "Yes" position on the market with the question "Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?". The total investment amounted to $7.46 million. With these funds, 10,171,908 shares were bought at an average price of 73.3 cents per share. At the time of publication, Lookonchain analysts noted that the position's value had risen to $9.31 million, yielding an unrealized profit of $1.85 million (24.76%).
The match, held on June 18, ended with a convincing victory for Colombia with a score of 3:1. Goals were scored by Daniel Muñoz, Luis Díaz, and substitute Jhaminton Campaz, who scored in the ninth minute of added time. Uzbekistan responded with a goal from Abbosbek Fayzullaev — the country's first goal in World Cup history.
Why the Profit Was Exactly $2.71 Million
On Polymarket, each share of the winning outcome is redeemed at $1. After Colombia's victory, the trader received a payout of $10.17 million. Of this amount, $7.46 million is the return of the initial investment, and the remaining $2.71 million is net profit. The key factor in this success was the low average entry price (73.3 cents), which allowed for a return of about 36% over a short period.
| Trade Metric | Value |
| Number of shares purchased | 10,171,908 |
| Average price per share | 73.3 cents |
| Total investment amount | $7.46 million |
| Total payout after victory | $10.17 million |
| Net realized profit | $2.71 million |
After the market settlement, the trader's position was fully executed, and the value of his portfolio assets was reset to zero — this is a standard process for closing a trade and locking in profits.
My professional opinion: This case clearly demonstrates that Polymarket and similar platforms are becoming not just entertainment, but a full-fledged tool for qualified investors. The success of the trade is based on a deep analysis of sports statistics and the ability to accurately assess probabilities. However, it is worth remembering that such high returns come with proportional risks — a wrong prediction could have led to a total loss of $7.46 million.