Crypto news

The mining sector in Russia has finally emerged from the shadows and transformed into a fully regulated sector of the economy. Today, attempts to mine cryptocurrencies illegally are doomed to fail — colossal energy consumption makes such operations completely transparent to regulatory authorities. This is no longer a gray area, but a business with clear rules of the game.

The basic law regulating the industry came into force at the end of 2024. Legal entities gained the right to officially mine digital assets after being included in a special register. For individuals, an energy consumption limit of 6000 kWh was established, along with the obligation for tax reporting. However, as practice shows, many private miners have still not submitted documents due to complex bureaucratic procedures and a lack of understanding of the requirements.

Throughout 2025, regulatory authorities took a wait-and-see approach, not applying harsh sanctions. Penalties mainly concerned illegal connections to power grids. But now the situation is changing dramatically — news of large fines and the initiation of criminal cases is already causing concern in the industry. At the same time, the law provides the possibility of avoiding severe punishment with full compensation for unpaid taxes. It is logical to expect a lenient approach towards small entrepreneurs: first warnings, then account blocking as a last resort — by analogy with utility debts.

Tax Reform: Favorable Conditions for Legal Players

The new rules are paradoxically beneficial to the market participants themselves. Before the reform, tax was levied on the entire amount from the sale of a digital asset. Now the fiscal burden falls only on net profit. Equipment is allowed to be depreciated:

• Individuals write off the cost of equipment in one reporting period.
• Legal entities and individual entrepreneurs can stretch this process over 24 months or more.

Expenses officially include costs for electricity, construction of hosting facilities, repair work, and forced downtime. According to my calculations, the income tax will effectively be zero for the first two years. Even the standard rate of 25% for companies looks much more attractive than the risk of losing capital and freedom.

Why is it Technically Impossible to Hide Mining?

The process of mining cryptocurrencies creates a colossal constant load on the electrical grid. Illegal miners instantly see their electricity bills skyrocket, and connections to transformer substations are visible to the naked eye. Management companies quickly record abnormal indicators. Detecting gray sites is purely a matter of time. Large players have long since legalized, as they understand that working within the legal framework is much more profitable and safer.

Bitcoin Forecast: Cycle Target — $180,000–$250,000

In assessing the value of the main digital asset, I rely solely on fundamental indicators. Information noise, statements by politicians, technical analysis, and geopolitical events are not decisive. Bitcoin has a powerful foundation, which includes over 20 GW of infrastructure and dominance in the crypto market. The protocol itself incorporates a regular difficulty recalculation and a halving every four years.

Over 17 years of observation, the market price of the coin has never fallen below the production cost for most devices. This factor forms a reliable economic floor.

Forecasts regarding the timing of the start of growth had to be adjusted. The expected bull rally was supposed to start in the fall, but on October 11, 2025, the market broke classic historical patterns. As a result, the industry found its bottom in early 2026 instead of the end of last year.

At the same time, the final price targets remained the same. They are entirely based on my mathematical model. The minimum level is $180,000, and the average figure is fixed at $250,000. This mark should be the peak of the current cycle, with which the industry will approach the next block reward reduction.

Probability of an Extreme Scenario

I have thoroughly worked out a possible "death spiral" scenario. If by the time of the halving the price drops to $130,000 and the production cost rises to $180,000, a dangerous imbalance will arise. About half of all global capacity could be shut down in a single day.

Due to the built-in rule for changing difficulty (once every 2016 blocks), the time for generating new blocks will stretch significantly. This will trigger an avalanche of miners leaving the network, panic among investors, and a deep drop in quotes. Additional risks are created by the concentration of computing power in the United States. Such centralization increases the system's vulnerability to a 51% attack.

However, I am confident in a favorable outcome. Large institutional capital will not allow a catastrophe and will support the price as it approaches the critical threshold. I will adjust the final levels of the current cycle based on network difficulty indicators.

Analyst's Comment: The Russian mining market is going through a stage of maturity, and the current regulatory environment, despite bureaucratic complexities, creates prerequisites for long-term growth. Legalization is the only path for the survival and development of businesses in this field. As for Bitcoin, fundamental factors remain bullish, and the correction in early 2026 only delayed, but did not cancel, the achievement of target levels of $180,000–$250,000 within the current cycle.